Automated Polymarket trading, on your own account
AI Trading Fleet trades Polymarket's YES/NO event contracts automatically from launch on 23 October 2026. It connects to your own Polymarket account with trade-only access, never holds your funds, and only places an order when it clears the risk limits you set. Every strategy runs on paper first.
How does automated Polymarket trading work?
A Polymarket contract pays out if an event happens and is priced between 0 and 1, so the price is the crowd's odds. A Fleet strategy makes its own probability estimate for the same event. When its estimate and the market price are far enough apart to leave an edge after fees, it proposes a trade.
That proposal then goes through propose(), the Fleet's risk check. It is a pure function: no I/O, no clock, no randomness, so the same inputs always give the same decision.
What is checked before every Polymarket order?
- Kill switch or halt active: every order is refused.
- Daily loss cap reached: trading stops for the day.
- Drawdown halt reached: trading stops.
- Strategy on paper or retired: no real order is sent.
- Edge after fees or confidence below your floor: the Fleet stays flat.
- Size is cut to fit your caps per strategy, per venue, per position and per market.
The per-market cap is an absolute amount in dollars, so one event can never take more than you allow.
How is a prediction strategy judged?
By calibration, not by a lucky run. The main score is the Brier score: the average squared gap between the probability a strategy gave and what actually happened. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% gets you, lower is better.
To go live, a strategy has to clear all five at once, measured on its paper account: a Brier score under 0.22, a win rate of at least 58%, a Sharpe ratio of at least 1.5, over a rolling 90-day window, with at least 30 resolved predictions. Miss one and it stays where it is.
It keeps being scored after it goes live. If its Brier score drifts to within 0.01 of the gate, its order size is halved. If it crosses the gate, it goes back to paper and sends no real orders. If it keeps failing on paper for 30 days, it is retired. Putting it back on real money needs a person to sign off.
Paper first
Any strategy can run on paper: live Polymarket prices with simulated fills and no real order. Paper fills can be better than real ones, so treat paper results as an upper bound, not a promise.
Before you connect
Polymarket limits access in some countries. Check Polymarket's own terms for where you live before you connect an account. Prediction markets can go to zero for your side: if an event resolves against a position, that stake is lost.
Questions
Does AI Trading Fleet hold my Polymarket funds?
No. The Fleet places and cancels orders on your own account and never takes custody of your funds.
Can I test a Polymarket strategy without real money?
Yes. Every strategy can run on paper first: live prices, simulated fills, no real orders.
Can the Fleet lose money on Polymarket?
Yes. Limits cap how much each market, strategy and day can risk, but they cannot stop an event from resolving against a position.
Reserve Early Access for $10 in crypto: 50% off your first 12 months, deposit credited to your first payment.
Trading involves risk of loss. Nothing here is investment advice. Read the risk disclosure.