Automated Kalshi trading, on your own account
AI Trading Fleet trades Kalshi event contracts automatically from launch on 23 October 2026. It uses your own Kalshi account with trade-only access, never holds your money, and every order has to pass the limits you set, including a dollar cap per market. Strategies run on paper before they touch real money.
What does the Fleet trade on Kalshi?
Kalshi is a US exchange for event contracts: YES/NO questions such as whether an inflation print lands above a level or whether an event happens by a date. A contract settles at $1 if the answer is YES and $0 if NO, so its price reads as a probability.
A Fleet strategy estimates that probability itself and only proposes a trade when the gap to the market price leaves an edge after fees.
Why scheduled events suit rules-based trading
Many Kalshi markets resolve on a known date from a published number. That gives a clean record of forecast against outcome, which is exactly what the Fleet uses to decide whether a strategy has earned real money.
To go live, a strategy has to clear all five at once, measured on its paper account: a Brier score under 0.22, a win rate of at least 58%, a Sharpe ratio of at least 1.5, over a rolling 90-day window, with at least 30 resolved predictions. Miss one and it stays where it is.
What stops a Kalshi strategy from overtrading?
- Kill switch or halt active: every order is refused.
- Daily loss cap reached: trading stops for the day.
- Drawdown halt reached: trading stops.
- Strategy on paper or retired: no real order is sent.
- Edge after fees or confidence below your floor: the Fleet stays flat.
- Size is cut to fit your caps per strategy, per venue, per position and per market.
It keeps being scored after it goes live. If its Brier score drifts to within 0.01 of the gate, its order size is halved. If it crosses the gate, it goes back to paper and sends no real orders. If it keeps failing on paper for 30 days, it is retired. Putting it back on real money needs a person to sign off.
Before you connect
Kalshi decides who can open an account. Check that you are eligible where you live. Event contracts can settle at zero for your side, and limits cannot change how an event resolves.
Questions
Does AI Trading Fleet hold my Kalshi balance?
No. Your money stays in your own Kalshi account. The Fleet only places and cancels orders inside your limits.
Is Kalshi live at launch?
Yes. Kalshi is one of the five venues live at launch on 23 October 2026, with paper trading first.
How much can one Kalshi market risk?
As much as your per-market cap allows. It is a fixed dollar amount you set, checked before every order.
Reserve Early Access for $10 in crypto: 50% off your first 12 months, deposit credited to your first payment.
Trading involves risk of loss. Nothing here is investment advice. Read the risk disclosure.